The bear market not over yet? If the Bitcoin price is back at 30,000 dollars in 2023, there are indications that the cryptocurrency sector is not yet in the same conditions as in 2021. Volumes and the number of pairs available on exchanges tend to show that the bear market is still here. While sellers are putting pressure on to break the $30,000 support, buyers are holding out for the time being.
Bitcoin price stagnates around $30,000 for the past week
The Bitcoin has been stagnating at around $30,000 for a week now. Buyers and sellers are neutralizing each other, and volatility continues to fall.
At one monththe share price rise by almost by 12. In six months, the course is in rising more by 30. For its part, the pair BTC/ETH stagnant in 24 hbut it fall more by 2% in one week.
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Bitcoin’s price is increasingly correlated with the US dollar
The Bitcoin is one of the risky assetsjust like the NASDAQ, the S&P 500 or stocks such as Apple or Microsoft. However, there have already been occasions when BTC has behaved like a risky asset. safe-haven asset. Indeed, during the banking crisis in 2023, BTC behaved like gold for a few weeks. For its part US dollar is considered a safe investment. As a result, Bitcoin and the US dollar tend to experience significant decorrelation in normal times.
However, from the data coming from Kaiko, we can see that decorrelation between the king of cryptocurrencies and the U.S. dollar has been weakening since January 2023. The correlation between these two assets was -60% in January, and is now just -10 %.
Will this trend continue? As the two assets are diametrically opposed, decorrelation could well resume in the months and years ahead. The Bitcoin was created to be a alternative to currencies created by central banks. It therefore makes sense for the US dollar and Bitcoin to be decorrelated.
Bitcoin’s price soon back at the $30,500 resistance level?
BTC is bouncing back in the support at 29,800 dollars. Buyers seem to be continuing to defend the bottom of the range.
If buyers continue to push, the price could reach the resistance zone at $30,500. We’ll need to use this area as support, to eventually get the price back to the top of the range at $31,500. As long as BTC is stuck in the range, there will be no clear direction for the price. The RSI bounced back to the bearish trendline. We must continue to post ascending lows and highs.
The decorrelation between the Bitcoin and the US dollar is in the process of weakening. As the two assets are fundamentally different, this decorrelation is likely to resume sooner or later. The price of BTC is still stuck in its range. Buyers are defending the support at $29,800and the price could return to the resistance level at $30,500. If it were to give way, the price could then return to the resistance level at $31,500.
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