All bets are off. Just a few months before halving of Bitcoinall bets are off regarding the future price of our favorite digital nugget next April. At what BTC price will miners be profitable? How well will the market anticipate post-halving conditions? These predictions quickly turned into bets. And the latest sees an Internet user pitted against the famous Adam Back. The latter is notably on the list of individuals suspected of actually being Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin itself.
100,000 dollars for BTC, 1 million satoshis for the winner
The CEO of Blockstream, Adam Backhas justcommit on Twitter in an unusual challenge. Bitcoin’s precursor, a member of the Cypherpunks, has agreed to take a bet on the price of Bitcoin. Indeed, halving is approaching. This halving of the rate at which new Bitcoins are issued generally has an effect on the price, but also on the profitability of miners. Since Bitcoin’s inception, the months following a halving have seen the price rise significantly.
Mechanically, as scarcity increases and demand continues to grow, the price of this digital gold, called Bitcoinhas gone from strength to strength since its inception. But what about this time? Will it be different? If too many people are waiting for something to happen, it can sometimes take everyone by surprise. That’s why some investors are betting on an anticipation of post-halving conditions that will see the price of BTC soar before the event, rather than after it, as is customary.
This guessing game has led to Adam Back to take the bet. For him, the price of Bitcoin will reach the famous 100,000 before halving. He agreed on the date of March 31, 2024 with his opponentan Internet user with the pseudonym Vikingobbitcoin. The latter has taken the opposite gamble. Blockstream’s boss will have to pay back 1 million satoshis if bitcoin does not exceed $100,000 before that date. This amount, far from being staggering, is rather symbolic. It is equivalent to $300 today, and just over $1,000 if Adam Back’s prediction proves correct.
« The bet is on: I’ll wager that bitcoin will reach or exceed $100,000 between now and March 31, 2024 (…) for 1 million sats. [satoshis]. «
Adam Black
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Post-halving Bitcoin prices, Adam Back has his theory
The pace of new bitcoin issuance after the halving will be halved, of course. But theimpact of this mechanism, which takes place every four years, tends to get smaller with each iteration. For example, in November 2012, we went from issuing 50 BTC every 10 minutes to just 25. Quite a drop, then. In April 2024, however, we’ve only gone from 6.25 BTC to 3.125. Will the impact on the price remain significant without an increase in demand? The question can be asked without shame.
On the other hand, to get an idea, it is also interesting to study the future profitability of minersin charge of running the network. At what BTC price will they be profitable after halving? That’s what Adam Back has been looking into. In fact, it was this first tweet that triggered the famous betting story.
To do so, the cypherpunk highlights a sentence from an article predicting that miners wouldn’t be profitable until the price of bitcoin reached $98,000. For Adam, this calculation is wrong. He estimates a break-even point around 58,000 dollars. At current Bitcoin prices, this still leaves plenty of room for growth between now and April 2024.
One of the users below his tweet doesn’t seem to believe in such an increase in BTC, even to $58,000. Adam Back mischievously replies that he wouldn’t see any inconvenience to reach the famous 100 K by theneven predicting that this could happen before the April 2024 halving. That was all it took to initiate the wildest bets.
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